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2022 MID-TERM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREVIEWS
Updated 3/31/23
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters. Females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
2024 ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
Joe Biden has announced he will be a candidate for re-election in 2024. He will be 82 in 2024 and his health will be a big question. If he is healthy and runs for re-election, he will have no primary opposition. If he does not run, look for the Democrats who ran against him in the 2020 primaries to run again.
Donald Trump was the first to announce he is running for president in 2024.
Former S.C. Governor and UN Ambassador Nikke Haley has also announced her candidacy for the President. Several Republicans appear to be positioning themselves to run for President in 2024. The list includes;
Ron DeSantis, Governor of FL
Mike Pence, former VP
Chris Christie, former Governor of NJ
Ted Cruz, TX Senator
Mike Pampeo, former Secy. of State and former Member of Congress
Kristi Noem, Governor of SD
Tom Cotton, AR Senator
Larry Hogan, former Governor of MD
Marsha Blackburn, TN Senator
Of course, Republicans will have to decide if they want to be the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. Trump's unwavering claim that the 2020 election was stolen is eroding his credibility. His current troubles with classified documents found at his home and other legal challenges are further eroding his support. Even if he is not indicted, his viability as a candidate is greatly reduced. History tells us the candidates (Republican and Democrat) who focus on the past are not as successful as those candidates who focus on the future. However, his monumental ego and his continued practice of not listening to his staff drove him to run again in 2024.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters. Females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
2024 ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
Joe Biden has announced he will be a candidate for re-election in 2024. He will be 82 in 2024 and his health will be a big question. If he is healthy and runs for re-election, he will have no primary opposition. If he does not run, look for the Democrats who ran against him in the 2020 primaries to run again.
Donald Trump was the first to announce he is running for president in 2024.
Former S.C. Governor and UN Ambassador Nikke Haley has also announced her candidacy for the President. Several Republicans appear to be positioning themselves to run for President in 2024. The list includes;
Ron DeSantis, Governor of FL
Mike Pence, former VP
Chris Christie, former Governor of NJ
Ted Cruz, TX Senator
Mike Pampeo, former Secy. of State and former Member of Congress
Kristi Noem, Governor of SD
Tom Cotton, AR Senator
Larry Hogan, former Governor of MD
Marsha Blackburn, TN Senator
Of course, Republicans will have to decide if they want to be the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. Trump's unwavering claim that the 2020 election was stolen is eroding his credibility. His current troubles with classified documents found at his home and other legal challenges are further eroding his support. Even if he is not indicted, his viability as a candidate is greatly reduced. History tells us the candidates (Republican and Democrat) who focus on the past are not as successful as those candidates who focus on the future. However, his monumental ego and his continued practice of not listening to his staff drove him to run again in 2024.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
