Election and Political Analysis / Inside Washington2024 will be an historic year for presidential elections with an unpopular and oldest president running against a polarizing former president with considerable character and legal issues
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2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREVIEW
Updated September 3, 2024
2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The Democrat's convention in Chicago moved from being a wake to being Mardi Gras. The Democrats were facing probable defeat with Biden as the nominee and now are full of absolute joy with the Harris/Walz ticket.
NOTE, The Harris/Trump race will be close and either can win.
1) Kamala Harris has infused enthusiasm and interest into the Democrat party. Thousands of people have volunteered to work for her and people have donated almost hundreds of millions of dollars.
2) However, can the post convention "bounce" be sustained until Election Day? The very loyal Trump Base has been working for two years on his behalf. The Harris/Walz base is only 30 days old.
3) Tim Walz as the VP Nominee is your average good guy neighbor who many voters can relate to.
4) Abortion will be a BIG motivator to get women to the polls, many of whom will vote for Democrats.
The attempt of former President Trump's life will further embolden his already very loyal base to work even harder for his election victory. Trump's fist pump as the Secret Service was trying to get him in the car is a visible sign of his physical vigor even thought he is only a few years younger than Biden
Donald Trump is so very popular with his base because Americans keep seeking "perfect government." There is so such thing as perfect government, but we keep trying. We routinely alternate awarding the White House to Democrats and Republicans. In recent history, we have only voted once to keep the same party in the White House three consecutive terms. That was in 1988 we when voted George H.W. Bush to what was Ronald Reagan's de facto third term. Bush was aided by a poor campaign by Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.
Donald Trump represents the change voters are always seeking. It is radical change by any measure.
Somethings to consider as we look ahead to the November, 2024 Presidential election;
1) Trump's base is VERY strong and loyal. At the same time, his unfavorables are very high. The November election will pit the Trump lovers against the Trumps haters no matter who the Democrats nominate. Trump continues to call his legal problems a persecution and his base agrees. His supporters donated $35 million within hours of his guilty verdict.
2) Nikki Haley supporters have to decide if they can vote for Trump in November. Even some Republicans doubt Trump's demeanor to be President. The name calling, the 3 AM tweets, his legal problems, his infidelities, etc. are examples of his weaknesses among all Democrats and many independents and Republicans.
3) Even after she suspended her campaign, Nikki Haley got 20% of the vote in the Maryland primary, 20% in the Indiana primary, 18% in Nebraska primary and 9.4% of the West Virginia primary which demonstrates that many Republicans want a Trump alternative. The question is, will those anti-Trump Republicans hold their nose and vote for Trump or stay home?
4) Trump's conviction in the New York trial does not appear to affect his support among his base.
5) Abortion will be a strong incentive for voters to vote for Democrats in House, Senate, Governors and the Presidential elections. One senior Republican strategist recently suggested that Republicans completely ignore the abortion issue in swing states and districts.
6) Trump and Biden will spend equal time talking about the issues and why the other guy is bad for America.
7) Most importantly, this is August and Election Day, November 5th about 70 days away. That is an eternity in politics.
8) The Republican and Democrat bases are solid meaning there are fewer and fewer swing, or undecided, voters. This means the election will be decided by independents in six or seven swing states. One of the swing states is Michigan which has a large Arab-American population which very much disapproves of Biden's support of Israel in the Gaza war.
10) It's possible that many Republican Members of Congress and Governors might lose because the Trump haters will go to the polls to vote against him and vote against other Republicans while they are there.
11) The Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. endorsement of Trump probably won't produce more than a few votes. However, those few votes could make a difference is the seven to close to call toss up states.
12) Republicans have an advantage in the Senate because they have far fewer seats to defend while Democrats have many more seats to defend. Republicans will work hard to flip Democrat seats in WV, MT and AZ. WV is a sure thing. Joe Manchin is retiring and the Republican nominee is popular governor Jim Justice. Trump carried every county in WV in 2016 and 2020
13) The House Republican majority is currently razor thin. Of the 435 House seats, only about 30 are truly competitive. Those 30 seats will probably go half to Democrats and half to Republicans which means whichever party has the majority will have a very slim majority. Of course, that will mean the next Congress will be similar to this Congress where a handful of members can delay even routine procedures, oust the Speaker, etc.
14) Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell attended a Trump rally and shook hands with Trump because he values winning elections over his personal animus of Trump. McConnell realizes that the Republican Party is ABSOLUTELY the party of Trump and a divided party can't become the majority party in the Senate, keep its majority in the House and win the White House.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters, however, females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 was not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The Democrat's convention in Chicago moved from being a wake to being Mardi Gras. The Democrats were facing probable defeat with Biden as the nominee and now are full of absolute joy with the Harris/Walz ticket.
NOTE, The Harris/Trump race will be close and either can win.
1) Kamala Harris has infused enthusiasm and interest into the Democrat party. Thousands of people have volunteered to work for her and people have donated almost hundreds of millions of dollars.
2) However, can the post convention "bounce" be sustained until Election Day? The very loyal Trump Base has been working for two years on his behalf. The Harris/Walz base is only 30 days old.
3) Tim Walz as the VP Nominee is your average good guy neighbor who many voters can relate to.
4) Abortion will be a BIG motivator to get women to the polls, many of whom will vote for Democrats.
The attempt of former President Trump's life will further embolden his already very loyal base to work even harder for his election victory. Trump's fist pump as the Secret Service was trying to get him in the car is a visible sign of his physical vigor even thought he is only a few years younger than Biden
Donald Trump is so very popular with his base because Americans keep seeking "perfect government." There is so such thing as perfect government, but we keep trying. We routinely alternate awarding the White House to Democrats and Republicans. In recent history, we have only voted once to keep the same party in the White House three consecutive terms. That was in 1988 we when voted George H.W. Bush to what was Ronald Reagan's de facto third term. Bush was aided by a poor campaign by Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis.
Donald Trump represents the change voters are always seeking. It is radical change by any measure.
Somethings to consider as we look ahead to the November, 2024 Presidential election;
1) Trump's base is VERY strong and loyal. At the same time, his unfavorables are very high. The November election will pit the Trump lovers against the Trumps haters no matter who the Democrats nominate. Trump continues to call his legal problems a persecution and his base agrees. His supporters donated $35 million within hours of his guilty verdict.
2) Nikki Haley supporters have to decide if they can vote for Trump in November. Even some Republicans doubt Trump's demeanor to be President. The name calling, the 3 AM tweets, his legal problems, his infidelities, etc. are examples of his weaknesses among all Democrats and many independents and Republicans.
3) Even after she suspended her campaign, Nikki Haley got 20% of the vote in the Maryland primary, 20% in the Indiana primary, 18% in Nebraska primary and 9.4% of the West Virginia primary which demonstrates that many Republicans want a Trump alternative. The question is, will those anti-Trump Republicans hold their nose and vote for Trump or stay home?
4) Trump's conviction in the New York trial does not appear to affect his support among his base.
5) Abortion will be a strong incentive for voters to vote for Democrats in House, Senate, Governors and the Presidential elections. One senior Republican strategist recently suggested that Republicans completely ignore the abortion issue in swing states and districts.
6) Trump and Biden will spend equal time talking about the issues and why the other guy is bad for America.
7) Most importantly, this is August and Election Day, November 5th about 70 days away. That is an eternity in politics.
8) The Republican and Democrat bases are solid meaning there are fewer and fewer swing, or undecided, voters. This means the election will be decided by independents in six or seven swing states. One of the swing states is Michigan which has a large Arab-American population which very much disapproves of Biden's support of Israel in the Gaza war.
10) It's possible that many Republican Members of Congress and Governors might lose because the Trump haters will go to the polls to vote against him and vote against other Republicans while they are there.
11) The Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. endorsement of Trump probably won't produce more than a few votes. However, those few votes could make a difference is the seven to close to call toss up states.
12) Republicans have an advantage in the Senate because they have far fewer seats to defend while Democrats have many more seats to defend. Republicans will work hard to flip Democrat seats in WV, MT and AZ. WV is a sure thing. Joe Manchin is retiring and the Republican nominee is popular governor Jim Justice. Trump carried every county in WV in 2016 and 2020
13) The House Republican majority is currently razor thin. Of the 435 House seats, only about 30 are truly competitive. Those 30 seats will probably go half to Democrats and half to Republicans which means whichever party has the majority will have a very slim majority. Of course, that will mean the next Congress will be similar to this Congress where a handful of members can delay even routine procedures, oust the Speaker, etc.
14) Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell attended a Trump rally and shook hands with Trump because he values winning elections over his personal animus of Trump. McConnell realizes that the Republican Party is ABSOLUTELY the party of Trump and a divided party can't become the majority party in the Senate, keep its majority in the House and win the White House.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters, however, females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 was not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
