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2022 MID-TERM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREVIEWS
Updated 9/27/22
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION PREVIEW
History tells us that Republicans will probably become the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The two wild cards are the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe and the House Select Committee on January 6th. Will that be enough to buck the historical tend? Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. Today, Democrats only have five seat majority in the House, so losing the majority is probable. 30 Democrats have announced they will not seek re-election. That is a harbinger of what Democrats think their chances are in November 2022. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority and may very well resign from Congress or announce she will not seek re-election in 2024. She will 82 on Election Day in 2022.
Endorsement by Donald Trump appears to be less important as the January 6th hearings show he did not have the temperament to be President. His legal problems are also reducing his influence. If he declares his candidacy for President in 2024 before the November 8 mid-term elections, it will hurt Republicans. His base will always love him, but his behavior has turned off, forever, the independents who helped him win in 2016.
Because the Supreme Court reversed Roe, will this galvanize one or both sides? Liberals are very upset that Roe was overturned and will probably turn up in large numbers at the polls in November. At the same time, Conservatives will also show up at the polls in large numbers because they want to protect what they see as a major victory.
However, Democrats have to decide how they can overcome three major Election Day issues; gas prices. inflation and wholesale illegal immigration.
Senate Republicans have said they will put a full court press in Senate Races in states that Joe Biden won by less that 10%. The Senate is split 50/50 and Democrats are the majority party because VP Harris provides the 51st vote. If Republicans have net gain of two seats, they will become the majority party
2024 ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
Joe Biden has announced he will be a candidate for re-election in 2024. He will be 82 in 2024 and his health will be a big question. If he is healthy and runs for re-election, he will have no primary opposition. If he does not run, look for the folks who ran against him in the 2020 primaries to run again.
Several Republicans appear to be positioning themselves to run for President in 2024. The list includes;
Ron DeSantis, Governor of FL
Mike Pence, former VP
Chris Christie, former Governor of NJ
Nikki Haley, former Governor of SC and former Ambassador to the U.N.
Ted Cruz, TX Senator
Mike Pampeo, former Secy. of State and former Member of Congress
Kristi Noem, Governor of SD
Tom Cotton, AR Senator
Larry Hogan, Governor of MD
Marsha Blackburn, TN Senator
Of course, Republicans will have to decide if they want to be the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. Trump's unwavering claim that the 2020 election was stolen is eroding his credibility. His current troubles with classified documents found at his home is further eroding his support. The chances of him running in 2024 diminish with each new revelation of what was found. Even if he is not indicted, his viability as a candidate is greatly reduced. History tells us the candidates (Republican and Democrat) who focus on the past are not as successful as those candidates who focus on the future
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION PREVIEW
History tells us that Republicans will probably become the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The two wild cards are the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe and the House Select Committee on January 6th. Will that be enough to buck the historical tend? Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. Today, Democrats only have five seat majority in the House, so losing the majority is probable. 30 Democrats have announced they will not seek re-election. That is a harbinger of what Democrats think their chances are in November 2022. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority and may very well resign from Congress or announce she will not seek re-election in 2024. She will 82 on Election Day in 2022.
Endorsement by Donald Trump appears to be less important as the January 6th hearings show he did not have the temperament to be President. His legal problems are also reducing his influence. If he declares his candidacy for President in 2024 before the November 8 mid-term elections, it will hurt Republicans. His base will always love him, but his behavior has turned off, forever, the independents who helped him win in 2016.
Because the Supreme Court reversed Roe, will this galvanize one or both sides? Liberals are very upset that Roe was overturned and will probably turn up in large numbers at the polls in November. At the same time, Conservatives will also show up at the polls in large numbers because they want to protect what they see as a major victory.
However, Democrats have to decide how they can overcome three major Election Day issues; gas prices. inflation and wholesale illegal immigration.
Senate Republicans have said they will put a full court press in Senate Races in states that Joe Biden won by less that 10%. The Senate is split 50/50 and Democrats are the majority party because VP Harris provides the 51st vote. If Republicans have net gain of two seats, they will become the majority party
2024 ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT
Joe Biden has announced he will be a candidate for re-election in 2024. He will be 82 in 2024 and his health will be a big question. If he is healthy and runs for re-election, he will have no primary opposition. If he does not run, look for the folks who ran against him in the 2020 primaries to run again.
Several Republicans appear to be positioning themselves to run for President in 2024. The list includes;
Ron DeSantis, Governor of FL
Mike Pence, former VP
Chris Christie, former Governor of NJ
Nikki Haley, former Governor of SC and former Ambassador to the U.N.
Ted Cruz, TX Senator
Mike Pampeo, former Secy. of State and former Member of Congress
Kristi Noem, Governor of SD
Tom Cotton, AR Senator
Larry Hogan, Governor of MD
Marsha Blackburn, TN Senator
Of course, Republicans will have to decide if they want to be the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. Trump's unwavering claim that the 2020 election was stolen is eroding his credibility. His current troubles with classified documents found at his home is further eroding his support. The chances of him running in 2024 diminish with each new revelation of what was found. Even if he is not indicted, his viability as a candidate is greatly reduced. History tells us the candidates (Republican and Democrat) who focus on the past are not as successful as those candidates who focus on the future
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
