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2022 MID-TERM CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREVIEWS
Updated 9/14/23
2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The three major questions surrounding the 2024 Presidential election are; 1) Will Joe Biden, who will be 82 on election day 2024 and 86 at the end of that term, be mentally able to govern? 2) How strong is Donald Trump's support? Of course, his base will ALWAYS love and support him, no matter what. However, his indictments in New York, Miami, DC and Georgia about election tampering , taking classified documents to his home in Florida and his involvement in the January 6th riot at the US Capitol are more serious that his New York problems. The guilty verdict in the NYC sexual harassment case will further erode his support among suburban women. No one can win the presidency without the suburban female vote. He also will lose the votes of many Republicans who feel he did not have the proper demeanor to be President when in office, he will lose independents and certainly will lose many female voters who disapprove his his extra marital affairs. 3) How much of a factor will abortion be? It certainly was a factor in the 2022 mid-term elections. See more below.
President Biden has two announced opponent. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy is the son for former New York Senator and Attorney General Robert F. "Bobby" Kennedy and the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. This early, it is hard to tell if Kennedy's run will have any traction. Biden's other challenger is Marianne Williamson. She has never held elective office and is a self-described "spiritual advisor" to Oprah Winfrey and others. She ran in the 2022 primary and revived less than 1% of the vote. The last two incumbent presidents who had primary challengers, Ford and Carter, won the nomination but lost the general election.
Should Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024, his chances of winning are not as good as 2016 and he'll take many Republicans down with him.
Trump already has ten announced Republican opponents. Former S.C. Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, SC Senator Tim Scott, former VP Mike Pence, Former N.J. Governor Chris Christie, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former member of Congress Will Hurd, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez(who just suspended his campaign for lack of progress) and Vivek Ramaswamy who has never held elected office and is a virtual unknown. Because Trump's base is so solid, the other candidates in the race will split the votes of the non-trump voters.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters, however, females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 was not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The three major questions surrounding the 2024 Presidential election are; 1) Will Joe Biden, who will be 82 on election day 2024 and 86 at the end of that term, be mentally able to govern? 2) How strong is Donald Trump's support? Of course, his base will ALWAYS love and support him, no matter what. However, his indictments in New York, Miami, DC and Georgia about election tampering , taking classified documents to his home in Florida and his involvement in the January 6th riot at the US Capitol are more serious that his New York problems. The guilty verdict in the NYC sexual harassment case will further erode his support among suburban women. No one can win the presidency without the suburban female vote. He also will lose the votes of many Republicans who feel he did not have the proper demeanor to be President when in office, he will lose independents and certainly will lose many female voters who disapprove his his extra marital affairs. 3) How much of a factor will abortion be? It certainly was a factor in the 2022 mid-term elections. See more below.
President Biden has two announced opponent. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy is the son for former New York Senator and Attorney General Robert F. "Bobby" Kennedy and the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. This early, it is hard to tell if Kennedy's run will have any traction. Biden's other challenger is Marianne Williamson. She has never held elective office and is a self-described "spiritual advisor" to Oprah Winfrey and others. She ran in the 2022 primary and revived less than 1% of the vote. The last two incumbent presidents who had primary challengers, Ford and Carter, won the nomination but lost the general election.
Should Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024, his chances of winning are not as good as 2016 and he'll take many Republicans down with him.
Trump already has ten announced Republican opponents. Former S.C. Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, SC Senator Tim Scott, former VP Mike Pence, Former N.J. Governor Chris Christie, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former member of Congress Will Hurd, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez(who just suspended his campaign for lack of progress) and Vivek Ramaswamy who has never held elected office and is a virtual unknown. Because Trump's base is so solid, the other candidates in the race will split the votes of the non-trump voters.
2022 MID-TERM ELECTION REVIEW
The Republicans are the majority party in the House of Representatives as a result of the 2022 mid-term elections. The party of the newly elected President almost always loses many seats in the House in the first mid-term election after his election. The new Republican House majority will be small. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe, Anti-Trump sentiment and the House Select Committee on January 6th are widely thought to be contributing factors in the absence of the predicted "Red Wave." The 18 to 35 age demographic is historically the lowest performing voters, however, females in the 18 to 35 demographic voted in record numbers. Those are the prime child bearing years, which strongly suggest the overturn of Roe V Wade drove them to the polls and account for the Republican very small majority in the House and loss of a seat in the Senate.
Republicans leaned heavily on the idea that President Biden's low approval numbers, high gas prices and inflation would be the only thing on voter's minds. Obviously, they were wrong.
Republicans will have a slim majority. Unlike when the big losses the newly elected President's suffered. Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and Democrats lost 54 seats in 1994. Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010. Donald Trump was elected in 2016 and Republicans lost 40 House seats in 2018. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be happy in the minority which is why she will not be a candidate for Leadership of the Democratic Caucus in the New Congress. The horrible physical attack on her husband, Paul, will also be a factor. She was 82 on Election Day in 2022.
History was made in another way. No Senate incumbent lost his/her seat for the first time since 1914.
The 2022 election also further weakened Donald Trump's position. His base will always adore him. However, he has lost forever the support of some percent of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats. He "anointed" candidates who were not qualified and almost all of them lost. He also has legal problems ahead of him that the media will take great delight in covering. If he decide to run in 2024, it will greatly complicate the Republican nomination process.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for four reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 was not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage, high interest rates and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament and credibility to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked. 4) Biden's record of 36 years in the U.S. Senate clearly show he is a moderate on almost all issues. Therefore, some Republicans and independents voted for him because he was not a far left candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but won't do it for fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. However, the mixed results of Trumps 2022 primaries endorsements is making it easier for Republican's to pull away from Trump. The FBI raid on Trump's home will further create the impression in the minds of many American voters that Trump is unfit to be President. For Trump's base, the raid will be seen as more evidence that the system is rigged and Trump is being treated unfairly.
