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THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Updated 6/3/21
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for three reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Republicans now have to decide if there are the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. This will be an overriding factor in the 2022 mid-term elections. Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but can't do it out of fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. The worst thing any politician (Republican or Democrat) is a challenge in the primary. Primary challenges cost money and time as well as members of your own party name calling. This just gives fuel the opponent in the general election.
A 2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The presidential election in 2024 will be for an open seat. Biden will be 82 and most probably won't run again. Because it is an open seat, we'll see LOTS of people running. VP Kamala Harris will certainly be running in 2024. Harris might be the incumbent if President is Biden is unable to finial his term. If she is the incumbent, she will have no or few Primary challengers. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo was made a "rock star" by the networks in their coverage of the Covid 19 crisis. He planned to use this as a springboard to the Presidency and even wrote a book about "Leadership in a Crisis." However, the numerous allegations of sexual harassment by female staffers have doomed forever his Presidential ambitions. He may even have to resign his post as Governor. He is up for re-election in 2022 and certainly will not even be the nominee of his party.
On the Republican side, look for Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton and former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley to be in the race.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
A 2020 ELECTION REVIEW
Trump lost for three reasons; 1) People want change when they are not happy. Covid 19 is not Trump's fault, but it made people unhappy and hungry for change. The gas shortage and the Iran hostage crisis were not Jimmy Carter's fault in 1980, but people voted for change. Voters also questioned if Trump showed enough leadership in handling the Covid 19 crisis. 2) Trump's demeanor of calling people names, verbal bullying, 3am texts, etc. convinced many voters that Trump just does not have the temperament to be the President. 3) Joe Biden was seen as both a viable alternative to Trump and having the Presidential temperament that Trump lacked
Trump's staff told him his legacy should be that his was a gracious loser, helped with Covid vaccine procedures and helpful with the transition. Obviously, he declined that advice.
Republicans now have to decide if there are the party of Trump or the party of Reagan. This will be an overriding factor in the 2022 mid-term elections. Many Republicans want to distance themselves from Trump's idiosyncrasies but can't do it out of fear of upsetting Trump's very loyal base. The worst thing any politician (Republican or Democrat) is a challenge in the primary. Primary challenges cost money and time as well as members of your own party name calling. This just gives fuel the opponent in the general election.
A 2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The presidential election in 2024 will be for an open seat. Biden will be 82 and most probably won't run again. Because it is an open seat, we'll see LOTS of people running. VP Kamala Harris will certainly be running in 2024. Harris might be the incumbent if President is Biden is unable to finial his term. If she is the incumbent, she will have no or few Primary challengers. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo was made a "rock star" by the networks in their coverage of the Covid 19 crisis. He planned to use this as a springboard to the Presidency and even wrote a book about "Leadership in a Crisis." However, the numerous allegations of sexual harassment by female staffers have doomed forever his Presidential ambitions. He may even have to resign his post as Governor. He is up for re-election in 2022 and certainly will not even be the nominee of his party.
On the Republican side, look for Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton and former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley to be in the race.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
