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THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL AND 2018 MID-TERM ELECTIONS
Updated 12/9/19
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
After almost three years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are firmly in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's unconventional presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump and are waiting to see who the Democrats nominate to decide if they will vote for Trump again.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment inquiry currently being conducted in the US House of Representatives. There is not even a slim chance the Senate will convict Trump. This will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
The VERY large number of Democrats running for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. However, if the Democrats nominate a candidate on the very far left edge of the party, Trump gets elected because he is the lesser of two evils. Or, he gets elected because many people will stay home because they can't vote for Trump but they won't vote for a far left Democrats either.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as calling for four Freshmen Member of Congress who are women of color to "go back where you came from." This also illustrates Trump's lack of detail, three of the four were born in America.
Trumps support among his Republican base is so strong no one will mount a credible challenge him in a primary.
He will lose the 2020 election if the Democrats nominate a centrist, moderate who is good on the campaign trial. Should the Democrats nominate someone from the far left, i.e. Kamela Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, etc. Trump will be re-elected as the lesser of two evils. The pendulum swings here and there, but Americans have a history of being a center/right country and will not elect someone who wants to make everything free. Governors races and Congressional elections in swing states will have about the same result as the Presidential election.
Democrats have a good chance to maintain their control of the House and Republicans have a good chance to maintain control of the Senate. However, the election is 18 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats nominate for Senate and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that he could no win in that deeply red state.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
After almost three years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are firmly in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's unconventional presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump and are waiting to see who the Democrats nominate to decide if they will vote for Trump again.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment inquiry currently being conducted in the US House of Representatives. There is not even a slim chance the Senate will convict Trump. This will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
The VERY large number of Democrats running for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. However, if the Democrats nominate a candidate on the very far left edge of the party, Trump gets elected because he is the lesser of two evils. Or, he gets elected because many people will stay home because they can't vote for Trump but they won't vote for a far left Democrats either.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as calling for four Freshmen Member of Congress who are women of color to "go back where you came from." This also illustrates Trump's lack of detail, three of the four were born in America.
Trumps support among his Republican base is so strong no one will mount a credible challenge him in a primary.
He will lose the 2020 election if the Democrats nominate a centrist, moderate who is good on the campaign trial. Should the Democrats nominate someone from the far left, i.e. Kamela Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, etc. Trump will be re-elected as the lesser of two evils. The pendulum swings here and there, but Americans have a history of being a center/right country and will not elect someone who wants to make everything free. Governors races and Congressional elections in swing states will have about the same result as the Presidential election.
Democrats have a good chance to maintain their control of the House and Republicans have a good chance to maintain control of the Senate. However, the election is 18 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats nominate for Senate and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that he could no win in that deeply red state.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
