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THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL AND 2018 MID-TERM ELECTIONS
Updated 4/5/20
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
Three and a half years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are firmly in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's unconventional presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and are waiting to see who the Democrats nominate to decide if they will vote for Trump again.
The election this year will be have two over riding influences. The Coronavirus has devastated the economy, will Trump be blamed for that? Or, will he be faulted for an insufficient response to the widespread illness? Remember, Jimmy Carter was blamed for the gas crisis during his Presidency, even though he did not have anything to do with the cause.
Will the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren fans vote for Biden? Those voters are so loyal to Bernie and Elizabeth, will they stay home? They don't see any way they will vote for Trump. That is why the Biden camp is circulating the phrase, "Vote blue, no matter who." Voter who stay home as a protest will help Trump because the Trump lovers will show up in big numbers and vote.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment by the US House of Representatives. The Senate did not even come close to convicting Trump which will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The Trump lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
Democrats will run ads saying something like, "Trump is totally unfit to be President, he has embarrassed us on the world stage and the impeachment proves it."
The VERY large number of Democrats running for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. Now that the field has narrowed and it appears to be between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. If the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders who is on the very far left edge of the party, Trump gets elected because he is the lesser of two evils.
Or, he gets elected because many people will stay home because they can't vote for Trump but they won't vote for a far left Democrats either. A non-vote is a vote for Trump. Therefore, Democrats are circulating the phrase, "vote blue, not matter who."
That is why Democrats who have dropped out, Klobuchar and Buddigieg, are throwing their support to Joe Biden. The consensus is that if Bernie on top of the ticket, he has a negative effect down ticket.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as calling for four Freshmen Member of Congress who are women of color to "go back where you came from." This also illustrates Trump's lack of detail, three of the four were born in America.
Democrats' chances to maintain their control of the House and Republicans chances to maintain control of the Senate are connected to the top of the ticket. However, the election is 8 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats nominate for Senate and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Former Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that they voted for a Democrat in that deeply red state. Alabama incumbent Senator Doug Jones' chances of re-election are not very good.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
Three and a half years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are firmly in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's unconventional presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and are waiting to see who the Democrats nominate to decide if they will vote for Trump again.
The election this year will be have two over riding influences. The Coronavirus has devastated the economy, will Trump be blamed for that? Or, will he be faulted for an insufficient response to the widespread illness? Remember, Jimmy Carter was blamed for the gas crisis during his Presidency, even though he did not have anything to do with the cause.
Will the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren fans vote for Biden? Those voters are so loyal to Bernie and Elizabeth, will they stay home? They don't see any way they will vote for Trump. That is why the Biden camp is circulating the phrase, "Vote blue, no matter who." Voter who stay home as a protest will help Trump because the Trump lovers will show up in big numbers and vote.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment by the US House of Representatives. The Senate did not even come close to convicting Trump which will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The Trump lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
Democrats will run ads saying something like, "Trump is totally unfit to be President, he has embarrassed us on the world stage and the impeachment proves it."
The VERY large number of Democrats running for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. Now that the field has narrowed and it appears to be between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. If the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders who is on the very far left edge of the party, Trump gets elected because he is the lesser of two evils.
Or, he gets elected because many people will stay home because they can't vote for Trump but they won't vote for a far left Democrats either. A non-vote is a vote for Trump. Therefore, Democrats are circulating the phrase, "vote blue, not matter who."
That is why Democrats who have dropped out, Klobuchar and Buddigieg, are throwing their support to Joe Biden. The consensus is that if Bernie on top of the ticket, he has a negative effect down ticket.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as calling for four Freshmen Member of Congress who are women of color to "go back where you came from." This also illustrates Trump's lack of detail, three of the four were born in America.
Democrats' chances to maintain their control of the House and Republicans chances to maintain control of the Senate are connected to the top of the ticket. However, the election is 8 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats nominate for Senate and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Former Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that they voted for a Democrat in that deeply red state. Alabama incumbent Senator Doug Jones' chances of re-election are not very good.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
