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THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Updated 9/21/20
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
Three and a half years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's "unconventional" presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and are now thinking about the Biden-Harris ticket and if they will vote for Trump again.
* Voters who are prepared to accept Trump and his unusual management style because they are tired of "politics as usual."
* Voters who like what Trump is doing but dislike his lack or Presidential temperament. Trump has appointed two Supreme Court justices, will appoint a third to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg. If re-elected, he certainly could appoint one or two more, given the age of the current Justices. These voters dislike Trump's tweets, name calling, etc. but will vote for him to shape the court for a generation.
The Trump lovers and Trump haters will not move at all. So the winning candidate is the one who can get the support of voters who have not decided who to vote for. In 2016, voters who did not like Trump or Hillary mostly voted for Trump thinking "let's try something new." Biden will probably get the support of voters who like neither Trump nor Biden.
Biden's choice of Kamala Harris as his VP Nominee was a good choice. If elected, Biden will be 78 when he takes office and 82 at the end of his term. This raises actuarial questions. VP nominees are always selected based on what states and/or voter demographic he/she can deliver. Kamal Harris has a deep resume. She was a District Attorney in San Francisco, elected as the Attorney General for the state of California and then elected to the US Senate from California with 62% of the vote. She is someone people can believe could actually function as President should Biden be unable to finish his term.
The election this year will be have two over riding influences. The Coronavirus has devastated the economy, will Trump be blamed for that? Or, will he be faulted for his response to the widespread illness? Remember, Jimmy Carter was blamed for the gas crisis during his Presidency, even though he did not have anything to do with the cause.
Will the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren fans vote for Biden? Those voters are so loyal to Bernie and Elizabeth, will they stay home? They don't see any way they will vote for Trump. That is why the Biden camp is circulating the phrase, "Vote blue, no matter who." Voters who stay home as a protest will help Trump because the Trump lovers will show up in big numbers and vote.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment by the US House of Representatives. The Senate did not even come close to convicting Trump which will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The Trump lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
Democrats will run ads saying something like, "Trump is totally unfit to be President, he has embarrassed us on the world stage and the impeachment proves it."
The VERY large number of Democrats who ran for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. It is interesting that the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, won his first ever primary when he won the South Carolina primary on this THIRD run the nomination.
Biden has said his VP Nominee will be a female. It does not have to be an African American because Biden is already popular in that community. However, who he selects is important because of his age. He will be 78 on inauguration day, if elected. Voters will really need to be convinced the VP is capable of being President. Presidential nominees always say the VP selection will be based on the best person to serve, if needed. Of course, that is not true. The VP selection is based on who can deliver their home state plus a few more. For example, JFK choosing LBJ in order to win Texas, etc.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as making statements about the Covid 19 vaccine that doctors say are not fact based.
Democrats' chances to maintain their control of the House and Republicans chances to maintain control of the Senate are connected to the top of the ticket. However, the election is 6 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats run in Senate races and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Former Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that they voted for a Democrat in that deeply red state. Alabama incumbent Senator Doug Jones' chances of re-election are not very good.
A 2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The presential election in 2024 will be for an open seat. If Trump is re-elected, he can't run for a third term. If Biden is the incumbent, he will be 82 and most probably won't run again. Because it is an open seat, we'll see LOTS of people running. Two people who will probably be there on the Democrat side are whoever is Biden's VP, should Biden win in 2020. We will also see NY Governor Andrew Cuomo. The news media has made him a "rock star" in their coverage of the Covid 19 crisis.
On the Republican side, look for Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton to be in the race. He has already made a few trips to New Hampshire.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
A 2020 ELECTION FORECAST
Three and a half years into the Trump Presidency, American voters are in the following categories;
* Trump lovers, a very loyal and entrenched group
* Trump haters, a very loyal and entrenched group
* People who are not thrilled about Trump's "unconventional" presidency, but happy Hillary is not the President
* Independents who voted for Trump in 2016 and are now thinking about the Biden-Harris ticket and if they will vote for Trump again.
* Voters who are prepared to accept Trump and his unusual management style because they are tired of "politics as usual."
* Voters who like what Trump is doing but dislike his lack or Presidential temperament. Trump has appointed two Supreme Court justices, will appoint a third to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg. If re-elected, he certainly could appoint one or two more, given the age of the current Justices. These voters dislike Trump's tweets, name calling, etc. but will vote for him to shape the court for a generation.
The Trump lovers and Trump haters will not move at all. So the winning candidate is the one who can get the support of voters who have not decided who to vote for. In 2016, voters who did not like Trump or Hillary mostly voted for Trump thinking "let's try something new." Biden will probably get the support of voters who like neither Trump nor Biden.
Biden's choice of Kamala Harris as his VP Nominee was a good choice. If elected, Biden will be 78 when he takes office and 82 at the end of his term. This raises actuarial questions. VP nominees are always selected based on what states and/or voter demographic he/she can deliver. Kamal Harris has a deep resume. She was a District Attorney in San Francisco, elected as the Attorney General for the state of California and then elected to the US Senate from California with 62% of the vote. She is someone people can believe could actually function as President should Biden be unable to finish his term.
The election this year will be have two over riding influences. The Coronavirus has devastated the economy, will Trump be blamed for that? Or, will he be faulted for his response to the widespread illness? Remember, Jimmy Carter was blamed for the gas crisis during his Presidency, even though he did not have anything to do with the cause.
Will the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren fans vote for Biden? Those voters are so loyal to Bernie and Elizabeth, will they stay home? They don't see any way they will vote for Trump. That is why the Biden camp is circulating the phrase, "Vote blue, no matter who." Voters who stay home as a protest will help Trump because the Trump lovers will show up in big numbers and vote.
This great divide among Americans is reflected in the Impeachment by the US House of Representatives. The Senate did not even come close to convicting Trump which will further anger the Trump haters and further encourage Trump lovers. The Trump lovers will see this an opportunity to run ads in the 2020 election campaign saying things like, "Don't vote for Democrats. They wasted lots of time and money trying to reverse the results of the 2016 election rather than attend to the nation's business such as trade, drug costs, health care, etc."
Democrats will run ads saying something like, "Trump is totally unfit to be President, he has embarrassed us on the world stage and the impeachment proves it."
The VERY large number of Democrats who ran for the nomination shows that Trump can be beat in 2020. It is interesting that the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, won his first ever primary when he won the South Carolina primary on this THIRD run the nomination.
Biden has said his VP Nominee will be a female. It does not have to be an African American because Biden is already popular in that community. However, who he selects is important because of his age. He will be 78 on inauguration day, if elected. Voters will really need to be convinced the VP is capable of being President. Presidential nominees always say the VP selection will be based on the best person to serve, if needed. Of course, that is not true. The VP selection is based on who can deliver their home state plus a few more. For example, JFK choosing LBJ in order to win Texas, etc.
Donald Trump's base is very deep and loyal. They are happy he is "draining the swamp" even thought he is rude, crude and a verbal bully. However, the Trump loyalist are glad he is the President and willing to overlook his "unique"personality such as making statements about the Covid 19 vaccine that doctors say are not fact based.
Democrats' chances to maintain their control of the House and Republicans chances to maintain control of the Senate are connected to the top of the ticket. However, the election is 6 months away and there are many variables, such as who the Democrats run in Senate races and if some candidates (Republican or Democrat) embarrass themselves. Former Republican Senate Candidate Roy Moore in Alabama is an example of a Republican who was so distasteful to voters that they voted for a Democrat in that deeply red state. Alabama incumbent Senator Doug Jones' chances of re-election are not very good.
A 2024 ELECTION PREVIEW
The presential election in 2024 will be for an open seat. If Trump is re-elected, he can't run for a third term. If Biden is the incumbent, he will be 82 and most probably won't run again. Because it is an open seat, we'll see LOTS of people running. Two people who will probably be there on the Democrat side are whoever is Biden's VP, should Biden win in 2020. We will also see NY Governor Andrew Cuomo. The news media has made him a "rock star" in their coverage of the Covid 19 crisis.
On the Republican side, look for Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton to be in the race. He has already made a few trips to New Hampshire.
HOW TRUMP GOT ELECTED IN 2016
Trump got elected because he promised to change Washington. The American voters elected Bush (43) and gave him a Republican Congress and not much happened except Republicans started spending money the way they accuse Democrats of spending money. Remember the Bridge to nowhere in Alaska?
The American voters decided we needed a change so they elected Barrack Obama and gave him a Democrat Congress. Not much happened in those 8 years, except for Obamacare which is currently falling apart under its own weight.
So the American voters REALLY wanted change. Donald Trump who is a verbal bully, referred to women by their genitalia, was insulting and still got elected. Another example of how hungry the voters were for change is that Bernie Sanders, a 73 year old self proclaimed Socialist, won 19 primaries.
THE 2018 MID TERM ELECTIONS
It is interesting that control of the Senate was decided in rural America with elections in North Dakota, Missouri and Florida. Control of the House was decided in Suburban America, most of the Democrats 40 seat victory was in urban areas.
The recent Senate confirmation process of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has enthused and energized both Liberals and Conservatives.
Both groups went to the polls on November 8th to express their outrage. However, Liberals and Trump haters outnumbered Conservative and Trump Lovers.
Conservatives are very upset because Senate Democrats used character assassination as their tactic to block the nomination they could not block any other way. They gave life to a 36 year allegation with no witnesses and no evidence. Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Booker of NJ and Harris of CA, used the hearings to help launch their 2020 Presidential campaigns
Liberals are upset because they feel Republicans on the committee "approved" sexual assault by approving Kavanaugh's nominations. Liberals hope that the painful memories of real and verifiable cases of sexual assault victims will drive their fellow liberals to the polls on November 6th.
The first mid-term is a "report card" on the first two years of the new President and the party of the President generally lose seats in Congress, as happened in this election. If Hillary Clinton had won the Presidency in 2016, Republicans probably would have increased their majority in the House.
The three seats Republicans picked up in the Senate were in states Trump won in 2016 and had Democrat incumbents.
