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Election Analysis/ Inside Washington

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The tidal wave victory by Democrats at the polls in November of '06 was the result of five things and likely will continue in '08 in both Congressional and Presidential races. Those five things are; 1) The American public becoming more and more convinced the war in Iraq is a Viet Nam like abyss. 2) George Bush's very low popularity which is closely tied to item #1. 3) The appearance that some Republicans were abusive (Tom DeLay, Jack Abramoff, "Duke" Cunningham, Mark Foley, ear marks, the bridge to nowhere, etc.) of the power they held as the majority party in both houses of Congress and the White House. 4) Republicans spent money like drunken sailors which is what they always accused Democrats of doing. As one disgruntled voter said while leaving the voting booth in 2006, "That's not my Republican Party, my party is for the least amount of government needed and the least amount of taxes needed to pay the bills. I voted for a Democrat for the first and, I hope, last time in my life." And 5) Democrats recruited former Republicans or conservative Democrats to run for office in Republican or swing districts. Former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill said, "all politics are local." However, every once in a while national issues (Viet Nam war, Watergate, The House Banking Scandal, etc.) become local issues that create a tidal wave that washes lots of incumbents our of office which is what happened on November 7, 2006. The Democrat's victory came without even a "national message" as Newt Gingrich used in 1994 with "Contract with America." Democrats simply ran on a "out with the old in with the new" platform with huge success. In 1994 when Republicans won enough seats to be the majority, 55% of voters in October of that year said they were thinking about change. The month before the 2006 election, 57% of voters said they were thinking about a change. The same is true today and Democrats are looking at enlarging their majority in both the House and the Senate.

                 BARACK OBAMA'S PRESIDENTIAL QUEST

Obama did a very good job of using all the things the public is upset about (war in Iraq, Bush's very low popularity, gas prices, the economy and other things) and packaging them all in one word, "Change." His entire primary campaign was based on the voter's dissatisfaction with the status quo. Now that he is the nominee, his general election campaign will be the same as his primary; Change, change and change.

Hillary Clinton stayed in the race to the bitter end hoping that Obama would make some sort of major mistake. The she could go to the Super Delegates with the argument that Obama can't get elected in November and she should be the nominee.  Obviously, that did not happen.

Now the question of the so called Dream Ticket." Will Obama put Clinton on the ticket as his VP? The answer is he will do whatever is needed to help him get elected.  Clinton is part of the past that he said he is trying to end.  Also, he knows that if elected, the White House is not big enough for three Presidents; himself, Hillary and Bill.

If Obama can turn out the sizable African American vote in two or three of the solid Red states of the South (Maryland is the only solid Blue state south of the Mason Dixon line) he can win.  Of course, the VP nominee will be chosen based on his/her ability to "deliver" a few Red or swing states.

                     JOHN McCAIN'S PRESIDENTIAL QUEST

John McCain has three things going for him and one thing against him.  They three things in his favor are 1)he will talk about "Experience, experience and experience" to highlight his many years in government and Obama's short time in public office 2) he is a genuine war hero who did 5 1/2 years of hard time in the "Hanoi Hilton" during the Viet Nam war and 3) his "favorables" with independent and swing voters is very high. The high favorables with independents will be quite important because of the 40/40/20 theory.  The theory is that 40% of all voters will never vote for a Republican and 40% of the voters will never vote for a Democrat so the 20% in the middle will decide the winner. The thing working against him is that he is a Republican in a year that Republicans have lost their "brand" of the party of fiscal discipline, national defense and restraint in the government. President Bush has made being a Republican radioactive this year.

Of course, his choice for his V.P. running mate will be important.  He will probably pick a Governor from a swing state such as Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. His would love to have a black woman as his VP but the only high profile black woman, Condi Rice, is to closely tied to Bush and the war in Iraq.

This race will give voters a very real choice between candidates who are very different.  Obama is young, charismatic, has little experience in government and a voting record in the Senate that makes his the most liberal member of the Senate. He is will be running against a 72 year old conservative member of the Senate who has served in the Navy and government all of his adult life.

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Current Political humor and patriotism are used in all Election Analysis/Inside Washington programs which make them engaging. Your audience will leave your meeting feeling they have the real "inside dope" on current events in Washington, DC. This gives your people a reason to work harder on their Hill visits during your Washington, DC programs and get involved with the winning candidates in 2006. Lawmakers remember who got them elected and remember best who supported them early.

 


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