REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS WILL BOTH RUN A "REFORM WASHINGTON" THEME IN THEIR NOVEMBER CAMPAIGNS
For the November 2, 2010 election, Democrats and Republicans will use the same issue as the centerpiece of their campaigns; "WASHINGTON IS BROKEN, SEND ME THERE TO FIX IT." However, this means that incumbent Republicans and Democrats are running against themselves.
American voters were angry when they voted out Republicans in 2006 and 2008. We were in two wars, were deep into a recession and President George Bush was highly unpopular. Bush is gone, of course, but we are still in two wars and a recession, the voters are even more angry now. The additional anger comes from the view that Congress and the White House bailed out Wall Street, but not main street and the health care legislation is too vague, too expensive and too slow to take affect. Many feel that the governments response the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is not yet but might soon become Obama's Katrina.
The mood now is that Congress and The White House are out of control and the taxpayers will have to pick up the tab. Utah Voters denied Senator Bob Bennett the nomination of their party to run for a fourth term. His sins are 1) he has been there three terms and this father was in the Senate for four terms before him. 2) He voted for the TARP bill. 3) He worked with Democrat Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon on a bi-partisan alternative to the health care legislation passed without a single Republican vote. If the very conservative Bob Bennett can't get re-nominated by the Republican Party in the very conservative state of Utah, WOW!, look out incumbents. Voters forcing Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a run-off and choosing Rand Paul as the Republican Senate nominee over the candidate selected by the party are two more examples that the people are angry.
The message from voters is clear, if you had anything to do with the bailouts, health care or just have been in Washington too long, you are in trouble this coming election. The two-thirds of the Senate that are not up for election this year are the only ones in Washington who are sleeping at night. All 435 Members of the House and the one third of the Senate running this November are sweating bullets.
Politicians are, of course, are very good are reading the mood of the people. The many retirements of incumbents is testimony to the anger of the voters. Connecticut Senator Chris Dood gets a tip fo the hat for coming right out and saying that he is retiring becasue he knows he can't get re-elected. Everyone else used the "spend more time with the family" line.
Just a few months ago, the Democrat's message was going to be "We have majorities in the House and Senate and we get things done, especially health care." That message was to be used as the antidote to the "How come Democrats with big majorities in Congress can't accomplish anything" feeling that sometimes pervades American thought. Now they are running away fromt that message except in some very strong Democrat House races.
The Republican's message will be based on a recent Gallup Poll that says 2/3 of Americans feel the health care legislation is too expensive and expands the role of government too much. Americans will problably feel this way until they have answers to questions like 1) how much will it cost? 2) how does it affect my family? 3) When can I put my under age 26 children on my policy? and perhaps most importantly 4) When does this all actually take affect? However, Republicans have to make sure they offer a concrete alternative. They can't be seen as "The party of NO!" They have be fashion their message so that it contains a viable alternative the the health care legislation the Democrats passed.
All House and Senate candidates (Democrats and Republicans) know very well that Independents are the key to every election. Polls show that Independents are very skeptical of Congress and the recently passed health care legislation.
2010 SENATE ELECTIONS
Republicans feel they can win the Senate seats currently held by Democrats in North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Illinois, Colorado and Nevada. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's numbers in Nevada are not good for several reasons. He suffers from the same situation as former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. Reid, just like Daschle, is a Democrat from a conservative state. As the Majority Leader, he is being saddled with all the "sins" of his liberal Democrat colleagues. Republicans have six Senators retiring or running for other offices. If Republicans can hold those six seats and half of the six aforementined seats held by Democrats, they'll have a net gain of 9 seats. A Republican gain of 4 or 5 seats is more likely unless there is a tsunami of voter revolt. If that happens, Republicans would be the majority party in the Senate after this election. In the 2012 elections, Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats, so Republcians becoming the majority then is a better bet.
2010 HOUSE ELECTIONS
Democrats will maintain their majority in the House, but their numbers will be diminished perhaps by 20 or 25 seats. However, if the aforemention voter anger tsumani happens, Republicans could have a net gain of 40 seats and be the majority party again. Republicans have started to recover (some of the damage is permanent) from being the party of President George W. Bush. At the same time, Republicans have taken a page from the Democrat's playbook and recruited candidates for the House who "fit" the Congressional District. In 2006 and 2008 Democrats recruited conservative Democrats to run in open and swing districts.
The Democrats elected to the House in 2008 by riding Barack Obama's coat tails won't have that help in 2010.
Republicans are hampered by their internal debate about how conservative you have to be to be a "real" Republican. If they limit themsleves to only conservatives, they eliminate the moderates and swing voters who are the key to vicitory in every election. If the "tea Party" folks see themselves as a third party and run candidates as niether Republicans or Democrats, it will be a repeat if Ross Perot's campaing which cost George W. Bush a second term.
In politics, one party always selects someone in the other party to villianize as part of an overall campaing strategy. Republicans have selected President Obama, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are their targets of what is wrong with America. As we saw in 2008, as many people voted "for" Obama as the voted "against" George W. Bush and the Republican Party.
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