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The tidal wave victory
by Democrats at the polls in November of '06 was the result of five things
and likely will continue in '08 in both Congressional and Presidential races.
Those five things are; 1)
The American public becoming more and more convinced the war in Iraq is a
Viet Nam like
abyss. 2) George Bush's very low popularity which is closely tied to item #1.
3) The appearance that some Republicans were abusive (Tom DeLay, Jack Abramoff,
"Duke" Cunningham, Mark Foley, ear marks, the bridge to nowhere, etc.) of the power they held as the majority party in
both houses of Congress and the White House. 4) Republicans spent money like
drunken sailors which is what they always accused Democrats of doing. As one
disgruntled voter said while leaving the voting booth in 2006, "That's not my
Republican Party, my party is for the least amount of government needed and
the least amount of taxes needed to pay the bills. I voted for a Democrat for the
first and, I hope, last time in my life." And 5) Democrats recruited
former Republicans or conservative Democrats to run for office in Republican
or swing districts. Former
Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill said, "all politics are local." However,
every once in a while national issues (Viet Nam war, Watergate, The House
Banking Scandal, etc.) become local issues that create a tidal wave that
washes lots of incumbents our of office which is what happened on November
7, 2006. The Democrat's victory came without even a "national message" as
Newt Gingrich used in 1994 with "Contract with America." Democrats simply
ran on a "out with the old in with the new" platform with huge success. In
1994 when Republicans won enough seats to be the majority, 55% of voters in
October of that year said they were thinking about change. The
month before the 2006 election, 57% of voters said they were thinking about a
change. The same is true today and Democrats are looking at enlarging their
majority in both the House and the Senate.
BARACK OBAMA'S PRESIDENTIAL QUEST
Obama did a very good job of using
all the things the public is upset about (war in Iraq, Bush's very
low popularity, gas prices, the economy and other things) and packaging them
all in one word, "Change." His entire primary campaign was based on the
voter's dissatisfaction with the status quo. Now that he is the nominee, his
general election campaign will be the same as his primary; Change, change
and change.
Hillary Clinton stayed in the race
to the bitter end hoping that Obama would make some sort of major mistake.
The she could go to the Super Delegates with the argument that Obama can't
get elected in November and she should be the nominee. Obviously, that
did not happen.
Now the question of the so called
Dream Ticket." Will Obama put Clinton on the ticket as his VP? The answer is
he will do whatever is needed to help him get elected. Clinton is part
of the past that he said he is trying to end. Also, he knows that if
elected, the White House is not big enough for three Presidents; himself,
Hillary and Bill.
If Obama can turn out the sizable
African American vote in two or three of the solid Red states of the South (Maryland is the only
solid Blue state south of the Mason Dixon line) he can win. Of course,
the VP nominee will be chosen based on his/her ability to "deliver" a few
Red or swing states.
JOHN McCAIN'S PRESIDENTIAL QUEST
John McCain has three things going for him and one thing against him.
They three things in his favor are 1)he will talk about "Experience,
experience and experience" to highlight his many years in government
and Obama's short time in public office 2) he
is a genuine war hero who did 5 1/2 years of hard time in the "Hanoi Hilton"
during the Viet Nam war and 3) his "favorables" with independent and swing
voters is very high. The high favorables with independents will be quite
important because of the 40/40/20 theory. The theory is that 40% of
all voters will never vote for a Republican and 40% of the voters will never
vote for a Democrat so the 20% in the middle will decide the winner. The
thing working against him is that he is a Republican in a year that
Republicans have lost their "brand" of the party of fiscal discipline,
national defense and restraint in the government. President Bush has made
being a Republican radioactive this year.
Of course, his choice for his V.P. running mate will be important.
He will probably pick a Governor from a swing state such as Tim Pawlenty of
Minnesota. His would love to have a black woman as his VP but the only high
profile black woman, Condi Rice, is to closely tied to Bush and the war in
Iraq.
This race will give voters a very real choice between candidates who are
very different. Obama is young, charismatic, has little experience in
government and a voting record in the Senate that makes his the most liberal
member of the Senate. He is will be running against a 72 year old
conservative member of the Senate who has served in the Navy and government
all of his adult life.
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