IOWA CAUCUS AND UPCOMING PRIMARIES
The Iowa caucuses always perform two things; 1) give the voters a choice between political philosophies even within their own party and 2) eliminate weaker candidates who realize their candidacy is not viable. The Iowa Caucus did both again this year. Congresswomen Michele Bachmann dropped out the morning after the Iowa Caucus. Texas Governor Rick Perry thought about dropping out too, but his wife convinced him to skip New Hampshire and concentrate on the South Carolina primary to see if his Southern Roots and mannerism will keep his candidacy viable. Look for Perry to drop out if he does do well in South Carolina. The same is true to Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul.
Of course, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorium go to New Hampshire full of evergy and momentum after their virtual tie (eight votes) in Iowa. Newt Gingrich has decided on "no more Mr. Nice Guy" and will take the gloves off in New Hampshire.
The reason that Santorium and Romeny tied in Iowa is that Rick Santorium's credentials as a Conservative are solid which makes him very popular with the activist base of the party. Be it the Republican or Democrat party, the activist base are the ones who particpate in caucuses and primaries and want the nominee to be someone is (for Republicans) solidy Conservative or (for Democrats) solidly Liberal. Romney's record when he was Governor of Massachusetts does not sit well with the activist base of the Republican Party. However, Romney is seen as having a good chance chance of turning Barack Obama out of the White House. Defeating Obama and repealing Obama Care is a goal on which all wings of the Republican Party agree.
It is probable that Romney, Santorium and Gingrich will do battle in New Hanpshire, South Carolina and Florida. It is unlikely that after the Super Tuesday Primary in February, there will be more that two candidates standing. Republicans will have to decide, do they want a candiate who matches their brand of Conservative thinking or do they want a candidate who they feel can defeat an incumbent President. The last time Repubicans had a candidate who was both was Ronald Reagan.
The Republican candidate will also be judged on his ability to elect other Republicans who are "down ticket." The Republicans need to capture four seats to take control of the Senate, three if Republicans win the Presidency and the Vice President cast the tie breaking vote. Because Senate Democrats in North Dakota and Nebraska have announced they won't run for re-election and those two seats will probably turn over to the Republicans, reaching 4 seats is very doable for the GOP.
THE FOUNDING FATHERS WOULD BE PROUD
When the Founding Fathers designed Congress, they made Members of the House of Representatives accountable to the people at the ballot box every two years. The concept is that, unlike the six year terms in the Senate, voters had short-term control over who represents them in the House.
Voters have used this electoral option more often in recent years than in previous election cycles. In 2006, voters threw out the Republicans and in 2010 voters threw out the Democrats. What will they do in 2012?
If you are Conservative or Liberal, Republican or Democrat, you may or may not approve of what happened in the 2010 elections and how "Tea Party" and other conservatives reduced the size and cost of government. However, it is exactly the measure of control the founders wanted. The people spoke at the ballot box and the newly elected Representatives carried followed their instructions.
Voters sent Tea Party candidates to Congress to accomplish one thing and one thing only, shrink the size and cost of government. House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama all knew, Tea Party (especially Freshmen) members of the House of Represenatives were NOT going to abandon their principles and agree to ANYTHING that did not lower spending and NOT raise taxes. Many people believed that Conservatives and Liberals should both compromise and "meet in the middle." In the view of Tea Party members of the House, years and years of "compromising" is why the U.S. Government is to large and to expensive.
Newly elected Republicans did not compromise, because if they did, they knew will be thrown out on their ear at the ballot box in November 6, 2012. The hardest hard line Tea party members would lose for abandoning their principles on the only task they were sent to Congress to do. Tea party folks in traditonally Democrat or swing districts are at risk of losing their seats anyway. They never considered compromise because they are already at risk. Attaching budget reduction to the "must have" legsilation to raise the debt ceiling forced the Congress to act NOW. No more, in the view of Conservatives, of passing off the vote to another time or place.
Many state legislatures are finding themselves in a similar quandry. The difference is that 47 states have a constituaional requirment for a balanced budget, the US Government does not. California, Minnesota and Wisconsin are three examples of the pain of balancing a budget in a recession.
The main problem lies in the fact that for decades the U.S. Congress has ignored a fundemental rule of governence. If you are going to spend like a Liberal, then tax like a Liberal. The Scandanavian countries are an example, their tax rate is very high so they can provide "cradle to grave" services to all. In America, we can't want to be all things to all people but tax at a rate that represents restrained government.
Of course, the system works for all. Liberals have every opportunity to elect candiates who want more government and more taxes to pay for it in November, 2012. Then those newly elected Members of the House can demand and get a vote to do so.
HOW DOES OBAMA GOVERN NOW AND RUN FOR RELECTION IN 2012
President Obama and his staff have to decide if they are going to take a page from Bill Clinton's playbook. Clinton was elected in 1992 and the public did not approve of his legislative/regulatory agenda, so, in 1994, voters sent big Republican majorities to the Senate and House. Clinton decided to cooperate with the new Republican majorities. It is called Trianglization and it provided balanced budgets and significant reform of the welfare system: two accomplishments Clinton still brags about which, in fact, were forced down his throat by Republicans in Congress. The balanced budget fight was so heated, the government actually closed for a short time. Obama has a choice, he can work and compromise with Republicans in Congress, or he can appeal to his base and govern and run for re-election saying he "stood by his ideals." However, every President needs to appeal to his base AND independents to win. Independents want Republicans and Democrats to work TOGETHER. So, this will be intresting to watch. Obama naming Bill Daley as his chief of staff is a probable signal that the President wants to work with Republicans in Congress. Daley is a known "get it done" type of person who works well with everyone. Obama will probably work with the new Rpublicans in Congress and run for re-election in 2012 as the "look what I accomplished" candidate.
On November 6, 2012, Democrats have to defend 23 Senate seats and the Republicans have to defend 10. It is hard to imagine the Republicans will not win enough seats to become the majority party in the Senate. North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad, a Democart, has already said he will not run for re-election in 2012. That seat will almost certainly be a Republican pick-up in 2012. However, the bottom line today is, yesterday and on election day, 2012 voters who do not feel good about their economic situation and their future, simply can not feel good about their elected officials.
STATE LEGISLATURES
In 2010, Republicans did as well in state legislatures as they did in Congress. Republicans picked up 650 seats previously held by Democrats. This affects both today's legislation and how new Congressional Districts will be drawn. Because of the 2010 census, representation in the U.S. House of Represenatives will shift. In the states losing seats in the House of Representative (NY, OH, MI, NY, IL) and states gaining seats (FL, TX, AZ, CA), the majority party in the state legislature in those states will draw the Congressional Districts to favor their party. All seats are moving from Blue states to Red states. |
